Colorless December doesn't ruin the quarter
Colorless December doesn't ruin the quarter
Historic record for Ethereum's quarter despite prevailing fragilities
“If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry.”
Satoshi Nakamoto
Non Fungible Token
The year 2021 is about to end, proving to be one of the most effervescent and interesting years. If in the first months the most popular word was NFT Non-Fungible-Token, in the final months, the narrative has passed to the world of the Metaverse that will surely catalyze the choices and the politics of many projects. That will happen not only in the cryptocurrency ecosystem and in the next year but, most likely, also in the following ones. Mark Zuckerberg's choices at the end of October to turn Facebook's name into Meta were strategic and forward-looking. It's no coincidence that other large U.S. corporations like Disney and Intel, or big tech like Apple and Google to follow, have begun to explore the new digital world of the Metaverse. A foot that will have to imprint the positioning of brands from the real world will also have prominence in the virtual one.
In recent months there have been multiple definitions of the Metaverse. Still, the correct one is that of reconstructed or virtual reality that can be experienced with an avatar. This three-dimensional character can take on any aspect, replicating the real or imaginary features of the owner.
It will be possible to interact with other avatars reconstructed in a world that replicates a real or invented place in the virtual world. The new generations will be an increasingly active part of these immersive worlds. For this reason, the new generations can no longer be considered only digital natives but natives of the Metaverse. That's because the transformation of traditional video games leads to interacting with their avatar within the virtual environment. This transformation will lead to interchangeability between the real world and the virtual one, in a fusion that will open space to new unexplored opportunities but at the same time also to risks that must be immediately addressed and possibly resolved quickly, not to risk stumbling into situations that could slow down the spread of these new worlds.
Technology often advances faster and faster when compared to the evolution in the real world. A dynamic that becomes difficult to manage, if not by budgeting for the risks that a superficial approach might entail.
Since the launch of the public auction last November 29, the new CloneX avatar project launched by the team at RTFKT Studios has been racking up the highest numbers since the beginning of the month. The total volume traded has raised over $88 million in the last week, bypassing Axie Infinity's domain that stands just above $58 million. CloneX's project has attracted a lot of public attention. For many, it is compared to similar projects such as those of CryptoPunks or Bored Ape Yacht Club, avatars developed in 3D and designed to be used in the Metaverse.
For these reasons, the launch auction was initially postponed for a few hours, as the activity seems to have been targeted by some malicious people who wanted to drive with wild sales the prices of some avatars. The starting price initially set at 3 ETH, which would have decreased by 0.1 ETH every 30 minutes, was later modified, bringing the flat price to 2 ETH. After the initial impasse, the 20,000 avatars went on sale in the following hours.
Other virtual fashion projects are also garnering user interest. In the ranking of the top five most traded NFT projects, along with CloneX, Adidas Originals is in third place, which recorded $44 million in trades on Opensea's platform in seven days.
Among the top five highest auctions of the week, four are CryptoPunks.The top two highest sales are for CryptoPunks #9953, which was awarded on December 17 for 399.69ETH, or 1,576,121 USD, and for CryptoPunks #9137 sold on December 20 for 310ETH or 1,220,990 USD. Both are featured images with hoodies and glasses. Intruding between the fourth and fifth position is the sale of EST land #871 in the Dragon City - Extra South 2 district on the Decentraland Metaverse platform, purchased on December 17 for 300,000 MANA or a counter value of 927,000 USD. That's the first transaction for this portion of the digital land.
In the last hours, BAYC's Bored Ape Yacht Club, Bored Bubblegum #9854 awarded for 159.69 ETH (617,208.24 USD), and Bored Unshaven Hat Red #4177 for 137.50ETH (554,570.04 USD) leave the top five auction list.
Among the Fan Tokens, Paris Saint-Germain, with $56 million traded in the last week, returns to the first place of the ranking, followed by Juventus that slips to second place with volumes just under $54 million and the price of the token that gains 2.8%, the best weekly increase among the top five most traded tokens. Although up slightly from last week and in countertrend with the others, the Spanish club Atletico Madrid, with $37 million in third place.
Decentralized Finance
After suffering industry-wide weakness, with Total Value Locked back below $100 billion since mid-November, the price revival of the last few hours brings TVL back within a step of reclaiming the triple-digit psychological hurdle for DeFi 1.0. Leadership positions have shifted over the past month, with Maker's loan project regaining the top position in the rankings, with TVL holding above $18 billion just days after the highest immobilization record was reached on December 1, just below the $20 billion mark.
Curve Finance's DEX protocol for Stablecoin maintains the second position, with $14 billion locked, also driving the related Convex Finance project, allowing Curve.fi liquidity providers to earn trading commissions in a very simple way.
As such, less than three months after launch, the locked share has increased from $6 billion to over $10 billion, taking the fifth position among all decentralized finance 1.0 projects.
DefiLlama's data aggregator confirms the positive trend, indicating a TVL above $243 billion despite the loss of the last two weeks, after reaching its highest peak on December 2, rising above $260 billion for the first time. DeFi 1.0 + 2.0 capitalization is better holding due to the growth of projects developed on Terra's Blockchain. Particularly that of Anchor protocol, which in countertrend with the rest of the sector in the last month has recorded a growth of 100%, going from $9 billion at the end of November to over $18 billion reached in the previous hours.
The Terra (LUNA) token is also rewarded, making absolute records in the last hours and rising above $86 USD for the first time. With a performance since the beginning of the year (YTD) of over 12,000%, the LUNA token enters the Top 5 of the best of the year 2021.
Despite the downturn in trading over the past week, total volumes traded on traditional DEX protocols exceed $25 billion, with Uniswap's project maintaining dominance, garnering 78% of volumes traded in DeFi 1.0. Since the beginning of the month, the volume traded on DEX 1.0 platforms exceeded $107,4 billion. Should the trend maintain the average of the last few days, the month of December would be set to reach the second-highest trading peak ever. The all-time record remains that reached in May with $174.6 billion traded.
Cryppo: the NFT collections to play in the metaverse and earn tokens
The public sale will start today
The Cryptonomist, in partnership with Italian company ArtRights, is launching its series of NFTs dedicated to Cryppo.
The public sale will start today on December 21st at 6 pm CET on the most famous platform for NFTs, OpenSea.
Yesterday a private sale took place and Cryppo traded more than 50 ETH in a few hours only.
Cryppo, the NFT to play in a metaverse
Cryppo has a long-term roadmap. The series is formed by 3777 Artificial Intelligence-generated NFTs with over 90 very special 3D traits, which makes Cryppo ready for the metaverse.
In fact, thanks to a partnership with The Nemesis, Cryppo has its own metaverse, where holders can meet, talk, play and participate in exclusive events.
Also, in the future, as per roadmap, holders will also have the chance to buy lands and participate in a DAO to receive Cryppo tokens.
In fact, each holder will be rewarded and, in the future, will be able to participate in DAO decisions to grow together, thanks to Cryppo governance tokens.
A DAO is an autonomous decentralized organization where participants of a project can decide and vote for the future steps of the project itself.
The roadmap, as mentioned on the official website, also includes a staking program to farm NFTs and receive the whole Cryppo family. In fact, if you buy a Cryppo NFT, you can stake it and farm it to gain Cryppo's wife and kids and receive tokens too.
The roadmap also features other future developments like live events, merchandising and more opportunities for Cryppo holders only.
Who is Cryppo?
Cryppo is an adventurous hippopotamus (Hippopotamus cryptonomus) who has survived the significant changes in the crypto since the great eruption of the Nakamoto volcano that gave birth to the great conquests and battles of the ICO era, IEO, and even the market crash, KYC and shitcoin. Today in his NFT Valley, he faces the biggest challenge of the NFTs and the metaverse.
Cryppo moves from database to database in search of the rarest cryptocurrencies and NFTs to collect and hold.
As a fearless researcher, he discovers the most interesting projects and previews them with his community in “Cryppo World.”
It is important to mention that this Cryppo NFT project has different partners including Zilliqa, Eidoo, Bitcoin Cash, Amazix, Algorand, and more.
5 hottest DeFi news of the week
Discover the Cryppo DAO
Ziliqa’s Metaverse: ‘Metapolis’ coming in January 2022
Russia: Central Bank ready to Ban Cryptocurrencies
Binance VC arm leads $60M round in cross-chain protocol Multichain
DeFi protocol Grim Finance lost $30M in 5x reentrancy hack
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC)
The recovery of 56k USD that took place at the beginning of the month, but without the support of purchases, opened the dances for downward speculation anticipated by the increase of Call positions opened in the strike area 56k USD already highlighted at the end of November's report.
The decline has increased the loss from the November tops, at the moment 35%, with prices that have been trying for two weeks to remain barely hooked to the psychological threshold of 50k USD (2). The month of December has often had a double-speed trend that has not yet occurred this year.
Trader sentiment is also in line with past years, at this time with a mood in the 27 zone defined as 'Fear.' In recent years, from 2017 to 2019, the index fell below 15 points. Only last year, in December 2020, the index, for the first time in the year-end period, marked a level above 95 points. Despite the weak performance in recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin is set to end the year with a rise of more than 60%. If the price were to maintain current levels in the coming days leading up to the end of the year, it would be the second-worst year in the last five.
Since 2017 only 2018 has closed with a loss, down 72% year-over-year.
Levels to monitor next week:
° Upside: In order to return to consider purchases, the price must settle above 50k USD (2) for at least three consecutive days. After this first indication, it will be necessary to find confirmation above 51,500 USD (3), preferably with the support of buying volumes. Given the particular period that statistically registers a decrease in trading, it is necessary to remain cautious and evaluate daily operations with monitoring of the closings that should not occur below 49k USD; otherwise, any attempt to rise will be technically denied.
° Downside: Since the beginning of the month, we have witnessed the test of 46k USD (4) several times, followed by the rebound of the quotations that proved to have less and less momentum. The latest technical rebound has been developing in the last few hours with a relative high that currently fails to push beyond the previous high of December 16, which came close to 45,500 USD (4). Technically it is a contraction of the moment, forming a bearish triangle that would find confirmation with the break of 46k USD and the extension to the 42k area in the following days. A technical figure that would be negated if the price were to return above 50k USD (2), or, to have better guarantees, higher than 52k (3).
BTC Options
Call options hedges are growing, highlighting how traders continue to prefer to hedge risk to the upside, speculating on the possibility of continued weakness in the coming days. The 56k USD hedges that brought a good profit for those who had 'bet' on the failure to overcome this resistance in recent weeks have moved between 52k and 54k USD, also confirming the technical levels that will be defended by bearish traders in case of a return of purchases.
These are the levels to be monitored over the festive period in the coming days. Only a decisive break of these two levels would trigger the hedges, in part of the losses of those who sold, with the possibility of rising again in a short time.
On the contrary, downside protections are weak. An eventual break of 43k USD, the last level where the defenses to be considered are open, would open space for further descents that could extend even under 40k USD.
Ethereum (ETH)
For Ethereum, December statistically cannot be considered the best month of the year, although the database of only six years does not allow to develop a reliable statistic. Analyzing all the information since the birth of the Altcoins' Queen, the last month of the year records a perfect balance between positive and negative closings.
What turns out to go against historical analysis so far is the weakness of the final phase of this fourth quarter. With the positive closing of October and November, the numbers also favored a positive month of December. Previously, in fact, this was the case in 2017 and 2020. Instead, this time, if prices do not have the strength to return above USD 4,400 (1), even in the coming days between now and the end of the year, we would not have confirmation of this trend for the first time.
Despite this, unless there is an ugly slide below 3,400 USD (2), the fourth quarter would end positively, marking eight consecutive positive quarters. The best series ever, even comparing the data with that of Bitcoin. A trend accompanying ETH to replicate last year's annual performance with a rise of over 450% in 12 months, while with the rise above USD 3,000 comes the best price gain ever.
Levels to monitor next week:
° Upside: going back to monitor the price trend in the medium and short term, the technical structure confirms the settings of a monthly cycle, started on December 4, close to close in the coming days in conjunction with the Christmas period. It will be important to understand if the closure will push prices below the lows of December 20 in the 3,750 USD (3) area or if this level will manage to repel the bearish attack.
A holding of this level, even in the context of current weakness, would create a good starting point for the next monthly cycle and the beginning of the new year.
° Downside: the recent decline in prices is moving the oscillations in a very delicate technical area between 3,700 (3) and 4,050 USD (4) that corresponds to 25% of Fibonacci retracement, taking as reference the lows of late September or 50% retracement calculated from the lows of mid-July. The exit of prices from this range, if accompanied by volumes, will most likely indicate the direction for the following days.
ETH Options
The return of quotations below 4k USD allowed new hedging strategies of derivatives traders to be balanced. The sentiment that espoused the possibility of a trend change from negative to positive in the last two weeks has once again changed the scenario, making people prefer to hedge the risk of a new bearish extension.
The ratio between Put and Call options is 1:2, indicating the importance of the resistance of 4,400 USD (1) in line with technical analysis indications.
As long as prices continue to move below this level, it will be prudent to anticipate any upward operations. On the contrary, the failure to hold the support of 3,750-3,800 USD (3) opens space for further descents.
Disclaimer
The analysis presented exclusively reflects the author's point of view and does not represent operational advice or a trading signal and should not be seen in any way as a service of financial advice or solicitation of public savings and should not be taken in any way as a service on which to base investment decisions.